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LittleBill
Advanced Member

5016 Posts

Posted - January 12 2018 :  10:39:13 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
From the ‘silicongraybeard.blogspot’. Something many of you veteran LEOs no doubt already know:

“The US didn’t have a spike in violent crime in 2016.

A handful of neighborhoods in the US did. A mere five neighborhoods in Chicago supplied one-third of the increase in violent crime in 2016. 

Murders in the U.S. rose nearly 9% last year, and one-third of that increase came from just a few neighborhoods in Chicago, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of the FBI’s annual 2016 publication, Crime in the United States.

While violent crime (homicide, rape, assault, and robbery) also rose nationwide from 2015 to 2016 — over 4% — the data show the increase was not uniform, but rather concentrated in cities like Chicago and Baltimore.

Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., meanwhile, saw “meaningful declines in violence [that] have been sustained since the 1990s.”
This means the US doesn't have a violent crime problem.  We have a violent zip code problem. 

This, of course, is hardly news.  Anyone watching the country knows that the worst of criminality falls in a handful of places, typically poor neighborhoods in big cities, and the root of the problem is gang violence and turf wars.  John Lott published a study in 2016 using 2014 crime statistics finding that murder in the US is very concentrated by location.

In 2014, the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available, 54% of counties (with 11% of the population) have no murders.  69% of counties have no more than one murder, and about 20% of the population. These counties account for only 4% of all murders in the country.

The worst 1% of counties have 19% of the population and 37% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 47% of the population and account for 68% of murders. As shown in figure 2, over half of murders occurred in only 2% of counties.

Murder has gotten more concentrated in fewer places.  John Lott again:
Murders actually used to be even more concentrated. From 1977 to 2000, on average 73 percent of counties in any give year had zero murders.

Criminologist David Weisburg of George Mason University criminologist, released a study in 2015 that described what he called the “law of crime concentration,” and “the criminality of place”: a disproportionate amount of any city’s violent crime occurs in a small geographic area of the city.  His data showed:
Weisburg found that in large cities, 50% of crime occurs on just 4% to 6% of a city’s streets, while 0.8% to 1.6% of streets produce one-quarter of all crime.

In many concealed carry classes you're dutifully told there's no such thing as a bad neighborhood that you can avoid to have no risk of violent attack.  While I agree with the sentiment that you should always be aware of your surroundings and that lightning can strike in odd places, these statistics show that statement is just wrong.  There are bad neighborhoods, and your chances of being involved in a violent crime are much worse in some places.  If you don't have to go there, don't go.  

Complicating Weisburg and Lott's findings is the side effect of protests against police that have police vowing to have a lighter presence in the areas that need them the most.

A Pew Research Center poll from January 2017 showed that an overwhelming number of police officers say widespread protests following high-profile killings of black suspects have made police less willing to conduct basic police work, such as stopping and questioning suspicious people in high-crime neighborhoods, and using an appropriate level of force to diffuse a situation.

In Baltimore, violent crime rates were going down until 2015, when police officers “pulled back from a more proactive approach” following widespread city riots after the death of Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old black man who suffered a severe spinal injury while being transported in a police van on April 1, 2015, and died one week later.

Violence in Baltimore has stayed historically high following the riots, with arrests plummeting, shootings soaring, and the police force itself getting smaller.

One thing that has been proven to reduce crime rates is more proactive policing.   Yet the "Ferguson Effect" has caused an increasing reluctance of police to go into those neighborhoods, and more reluctant to carry out everyday tasks of policing. You might have noticed that the left is currently lobbying for all of the things that make the murder rate worse.

Remember: it's not gun control we need.  It's zip code control.”


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish, that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on January 12 2018 10:47:42 PM

jle3030
Advanced Member

USA
5226 Posts

Posted - January 13 2018 :  08:05:54 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thanks LB. Very informative post. It confirms what I think we all pretty well knew. My first reaction is that as long as the violence is concentrated certain areas and the Ferguson Effect discourages police presence, let those people stew in their own juices. Quarantine those areas and apply the Higginbotham Postulate. Let them work out their own salvation.

That sounds drastic, but what are the alternatives? Relieve the poverty by infusing massive amounts of cash? Yeah, that works! Radically increase (inflict) police presence with the inevitable loss of officers' lives; increase in "racist" police shootings of "innocent oppressed minorities"; and the ensuing opportunistic riots?

It's not just the 'hoods that are the problem. All these murder zones are located in cities with entrenched Democrat, often minority dominated, city governments. The impoverished areas are key voting blocks for those career pols. Police, to the extent they are not themselves corrupted, are caught between the gang bangers and City Hall.

When fighting a major fire, at some point you just contain it and let it burn.

Jeff

jle3030
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dubiousone
Senior Member

643 Posts

Posted - January 13 2018 :  09:09:54 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Thanks for sharing that Bill,
I suppose this isn't a surprise for some of us and I'm sure its not lost on the group here that those places where crime is higher have very strict gun control.

The 'broken windows' theory actually works as they discovered in NYC (and other places). Unfortunately, people with agendas have convinced people that those policies are more about oppressing people of color and such than reducing crime. They then move on to restrict the police even more, making them less effective which causes crime to rise. And out they come with their schemes to "help" usually in the form of more gun control, more welfare and less policing. And the cycle kicks up a notch. Meanwhile, those people gain in power and control. Its nothing but a racket to keep corrupt, liberal scum in office.

Jeff might be on to something. (burn baby, burn LOL)

Expert? I ain't no expert, just a
Reasonably Knowledgeable Individual...
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Pop Pop
Senior Member

USA
894 Posts

Posted - January 13 2018 :  09:19:18 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Nashville TN, has held all kinds of meetings and media hyped stories about crime in their city. They had close to 100 murders this year. They put pictures, on TV, of all the murdered people in Nashville, and they were mostly minorities, and most of the murders were in North Nashville. On the latest news show about "Murder In Nashville" about 4 weeks ago, everyone ignored the elephant in the room, and no one made those facts public. As a matter of fact the story was presented as being a Nashville city wide problem when 80% of the murders occurred in one section of the city.

There were a few of instances where people from that area ventured into the tourist district to hunt for their prey, but the majority was minority killing minority. Of course, the mayor did not want to discuss the elephant in the room because the city leaders don't want to bring attention to the fact, and discourage visitors coming to the "It City" that they are touting Nashville to be now. In fact they are planning to put pro sports centers, owned by the city,(semi pro baseball stadium and new professional Soccer stadium) in the North Nashville area, however I think the new Soccer Stadium was moved to the nearby Fair Grounds property.

Thanks LittleBill.

Edited to add; When they had the Freddy Gray riots, in Nashville, the Mayor and Police Chief set up stands, at tax payers expense, and gave them hot chocolate and coffee, had a "cumbia" touchy feely rally, and then the Police escorted them to the interstate and allowed them to shut down the interstate, through the heart of Nashville("The It City"), for 25 minutes. Of course all of this was done in the name of "good community relations."

Pop Pop

Edited by - Pop Pop on January 13 2018 10:16:36 AM
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jle3030
Advanced Member

USA
5226 Posts

Posted - January 13 2018 :  09:51:28 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
It's darned hard to fix a problem when nobody dares speak the root causes. Especially when some of the root causes wield power and have a vested interest in the status quo.

Jeff

jle3030
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Ace
Advanced Member

USA
5317 Posts

Posted - January 13 2018 :  10:03:10 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Some years back, somebody made a public statement about avoiding 'certain neighborhoods' in our town. The mayor got all huffy and indignant and self righteous, and loudly proclaimed that she would feel safe walking in any neighborhood in town after dark. Then she went out for a walk in a couple of them to prove it.

Oh, not until the police saturated the area, got some people off the street, and two or three cops walked along with her, with (IIRC) a couple of patrol cars driving point and rear guard. She got home safely. 'See, I told you so.' Ace

Give me $1 every time a Liberal lies, I'll give you $5 every time one tells the truth; I'll end up a wealthy man, you'll end up broke.
If pro-gunners are as murderous as anti-gunners claim, why are there so many anti-gunners still running their mouths?
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

5016 Posts

Posted - January 13 2018 :  1:30:28 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
You’re quite welcome, gentlemen.

"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish, that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on January 13 2018 1:52:16 PM
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

5016 Posts

Posted - January 13 2018 :  1:55:22 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Ace

Some years back, somebody made a public statement about avoiding 'certain neighborhoods' in our town. The mayor got all huffy and indignant and self righteous, and loudly proclaimed that she would feel safe walking in any neighborhood in town after dark. Then she went out for a walk in a couple of them to prove it.

Oh, not until the police saturated the area, got some people off the street, and two or three cops walked along with her, with (IIRC) a couple of patrol cars driving point and rear guard. She got home safely. 'See, I told you so.' Ace


Ace, she wasn’t exactly lying.... I’m sure she did feel safe...

Let me guess.... Democrat?

"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish, that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast
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WR Moore
Senior Member

USA
907 Posts

Posted - January 13 2018 :  3:57:09 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I have the solution to a high murder/crime rate: adopt the stat system the Home Office of the UK uses (or used to use, not sure it's the same, but probably is).

The key to that system is to disregard the stats from any political subdivision that "Does not accurately reflect the conditions in the (UK) USA".
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Malcolm
Advanced Member

USA
4076 Posts

Posted - January 14 2018 :  09:59:22 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The British Home Office, also does not report crime stats, from ANY violent crime, tha5 has not been “resolved”, by conviction.
Leave it to the Brits to continue the practice of diddling their true numbers

"The measure of a man's character, is how he treats someone who can do nothing for him." (unknown)
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

5016 Posts

Posted - January 14 2018 :  10:54:22 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
From what I understand, British “authorities” “advise” their citizens not to resist a home invasion, should one or more thugs come crashing through their door!

Cringe in a corner, give them what they want, don’t do or say anything to upset them, just hope and pray they don’t ‘take a liking’ to your wife or daughter... but whatever you do, don’t even think about responding with violence.... which all good people “know” is never a solution....

Capitulation as an official policy....

One more reason to be grateful to our Founding Fathers, who had a somewhat different take on the usefulness of violence....


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish, that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on January 14 2018 11:00:01 AM
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gauchobill
Advanced Member

1073 Posts

Posted - January 14 2018 :  4:05:50 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I have been told that in at least one state in the northeast, there is a duty to leave the home to the intruder(s) if one can. My informant from that state says the district attorney has discretion not to prosecute the homeowner for not fleeing if he/she has a physical disability which precludes running away from the threat. I can only suppose that at some time in the future such a state will pass a law against self-defense.
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Pop Pop
Senior Member

USA
894 Posts

Posted - January 15 2018 :  10:18:36 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
LittleBill I posted these stats on our in state TN Gun Owners blog and the discussion was pretty much discussed the same as here. I point out about the recent programs in Nashville and the officials did not mention the elephant in the room. One of the follow up posters told me I was in danger of being labeled as being a "racist", because I fingered the region of north Nashville. Go figure! By the way he agreed with my post.


Jeff's post is correct.

{Quote}
It's darned hard to fix a problem when nobody dares speak the root causes. Especially when some of the root causes wield power and have a vested interest in the status quo.

Pop Pop
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fsilber
Senior Member

USA
522 Posts

Posted - January 16 2018 :  10:18:54 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by gauchobill

I have been told that in at least one state in the northeast, there is a duty to leave the home to the intruder(s) if one can. My informant from that state says the district attorney has discretion not to prosecute the homeowner for not fleeing if he/she has a physical disability which precludes running away from the threat. I can only suppose that at some time in the future such a state will pass a law against self-defense.

Many Brits on other sites have argued that disarming victims (and most police) works "because this way most criminals don't feel a need to have guns." (A Canadian newspaper expressed concern about stories of people who used impromptu weapons to drive off robbers, fearing that such behavior might incite robbers to arm themselves with guns.)

I argued that it was a good idea, but it didn't go far enough. I suggested that instead of merely outlawing the carrying of any object with intent to use it as a weapon in self-defense, they should pass a law against disobedience to criminals in general.

Let the criminals know that they can escape prosecution in exchange for providing testimony that can be used to convict and imprison a resisting victim. (They already do this for a burglar if he can testify against the homeowner who used a realistic-looking air rifle to drive him away -- thereby convicting him homeowner of "menacing with a firearm.") This way, a mugger won't even need to use the threat of empty-hands violence -- all he needs to do is to use his cell phone to record the victim as he makes his demands. If the victim refuses to pay up, deliver the video to the police so the victim can be arrested, prosecuted and imprisoned.

Think how much safer people will be when robbers no longer need to threaten any kind of violence.
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

5016 Posts

Posted - January 17 2018 :  08:04:07 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote


Brilliant!

And these are principles we could easily incorporate into our foreign policy as well... making ourselves so feeble and helpless, that the jihadis, the Russians, the Chinese, and North Koreans, won’t have any reason to use violence against us...

"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish, that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on January 17 2018 08:07:36 AM
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jle3030
Advanced Member

USA
5226 Posts

Posted - January 17 2018 :  08:52:37 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by LittleBill



Brilliant!

And these are principles we could easily incorporate into our foreign policy as well... making ourselves so feeble and helpless, that the jihadis, the Russians, the Chinese, and North Koreans, won’t have any reason to use violence against us...


I can't imagine much of anything that will do more to embolden rogue states worldwide.

In his memoirs, German general Heinz Guderian wrote that they invaded Poland because Foreign Minister Von Ribbentrop had convinced Hitler that the French and British lacked the will to go to war over Poland. The Panzer commander described the initial exhilaration the German generals felt overrunning Polish defenses, followed by the "Oh Crap!!" moment late that afternoon when they learned that France and Britain had both declared war on them. Guderian claimed in that moment he and some others knew the war was lost. They had bitten off more than they could chew.

As for the Japanese, Admiral Yamamoto told the high command that after Pearl Harbor he could only offer six months of naval victories over the United States Navy, after which our massive industrial capability would overwhelm that of Japan. He also cautioned against an invasion of the US mainland because "there would be an American with a rifle behind every blade of grass".

Back on topic, I have read of Brit citizens being prosecuted and imprisoned for resisting and injuring their criminal intruders and attackers.

Jeff

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LittleBill
Advanced Member

5016 Posts

Posted - January 17 2018 :  12:03:49 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Yep! Appeasement has never worked. It just makes the aggressor bolder.

Hopefully what's happening in Britain-- and Europe-- will serve as a warning flag to us: what could easily happen here, if we abandon the principles our country was founded on....


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish, that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on January 17 2018 1:03:19 PM
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WR Moore
Senior Member

USA
907 Posts

Posted - January 17 2018 :  4:43:12 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
There was an incident in the UK several years ago that got enough attention that it actually got reported here. A Brit was viciously attacked in his home by an intruder with some sort of edged weapon. In fear for his life, the Brit snatched up a displayed replica Katana and defended himself. Quite successfully, he amputated the attackers knife arm. (Guess he had a really nice replica.)

The Crown Prosecutors charged him with Assault with Intent to Cause Great Bodily Harm And convicted him. Fortunately. on appeal to the Law Lords, the conviction was overturned. I'd kind of liked to have been a fly on the wall for the appellate proceedings.

Edited by - WR Moore on January 17 2018 4:46:37 PM
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Ace
Advanced Member

USA
5317 Posts

Posted - January 17 2018 :  7:01:05 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
'Warning flag', LB? The Liberals would just say the Brits and others haven't been doing it right, and they/we could do it so much better if given the chance. Ace

Give me $1 every time a Liberal lies, I'll give you $5 every time one tells the truth; I'll end up a wealthy man, you'll end up broke.
If pro-gunners are as murderous as anti-gunners claim, why are there so many anti-gunners still running their mouths?
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

5016 Posts

Posted - January 18 2018 :  08:15:54 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I’m sure “we” could!

A good first step would be confiscating all guns and edged weapons; thus making it harder for so-called “law-abiding citizens” to inflict violence on the poor criminals; who are only trying to share in the prosperity which has been so unjustly denied them.

A good next step might be reparations for criminals... to try and pay back in some small measure, the “injustice” “society” has perpetrated on them, by forcing them to become criminals.... We owe it to them!


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish, that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on January 18 2018 08:19:53 AM
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

5016 Posts

Posted - January 18 2018 :  08:50:34 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Another way to make things fairer for criminals, would be to bring in more immigrants from countries which in the past have proven more likely to provide ‘fresh’ members of the criminal ‘community’. This would have the added benefit of making America more ‘inclusive’ and ‘diverse’. Our ‘vibrancy factor’ would go way up!


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish, that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on January 18 2018 08:51:07 AM
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bandaidman
Advanced Member

USA
1405 Posts

Posted - January 18 2018 :  8:22:15 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
How about sending our beloved liberals to live in those self same countries. Think of their benefits: lower cost of living, they could have a nicer home than they currently live in, it would provide the local economy with fresh income and allow them to visit frequently, they would see in person how it is to experience a country where gun control is in play as well as wealth sharing I think it would be a win win situation We would be able to resettle a number of states, and cities, crime would go down. see a win win situation.

“If for a while the harder you try, the harder it gets, take heart. So it has been with the best people who ever lived.
Jeffery Holland
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