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Arvinator
Advanced Member

USA
5252 Posts

Posted - August 08 2017 :  9:33:01 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Yes he's a sawed off runt. Yes he's a dictator and could easily start a war. Lucky for us, all the other countries backed us on the last UN Resolution.

I could see terrorist joining up ( or already joined up) with North Korea. Remember Pearl Harbor? Remember 9/11? I guess most have let the cobwebs & dust get on the generator since the snowstorms are over for a few more months.

While ICMB's & Stealth Bombers and wishful thinking for the USS Missouri to go clobber North Korea, they could get small terror cells as a start for all out chaos & possible strike.

Stay alert & prepared folks. I'm thinking of a new home for me & the wife in a rural area with more natural resources and a strong shelter or a room that offers all kinds of threat protection like a basement or underground tornado shelter.

While I Pray for peace daily, I go to work, shopping, & Church knowing what could happen.

Be honest, fair, and always prepared...

Malcolm
Advanced Member

USA
4008 Posts

Posted - August 08 2017 :  10:09:35 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I see him sending hundreds of thousands of his people, NOT troops, south to the border and simply become starving refugees(which they are).
He would then mobilize his troops in the guise of "protecting" the refugees from the evil West.
Something akin to what Hitler did to Poland prior to invading that country.
We definitely need to pray for peace, and be steadfast in our faith and in being as prepared as we can be.

"The measure of a man's character, is how he treats someone who can do nothing for him." (unknown)
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gw
Advanced Member

3984 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  02:04:30 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I see a war as inevitable, it's a no win just like the last 17 years.

there is a good chance that his military can be grounded with minimum collateral damage in the south, but any occupation will be met with an organized insurgency that likely will not be contained in the north and will be unwinable.

the 800 pound gorilla is China, how will they react.

I talk to friends, planning is in the works as to be expected, and the window of opportunity is closing.

N.Korea's rapid development of nuclear weapons is limiting options.

"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..."
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jle3030
Advanced Member

USA
4992 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  04:00:14 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Kim is a mad capricious man-child who murders his generals and his own family in grotesque ways. How much deep love and loyalty does that get a person? He's an existential threat to the entire region, to include the world's most powerful players. My bet: at some point his own generals will take him out; likely aided and abetted by China.

China is the big player here. The last thing they want is deeper US military involvement on their doorstep. My bet: Kim's out of his league; overplaying his hand: and his days are numbered.

Jeff

jle3030
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gw
Advanced Member

3984 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  04:39:46 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
the stories about Kim murdering his family and Generals are largly fake news generated by the south Korean press in an attempt to create headlines.

current assessment is that he is hugely popular with a very loyal following inside N.Korea

North Koreans have limited access to information, they have been trained to believe that their military is the only thing saving them from distruction and protects them from the western world.

to paraphrase, they'll give up their nukes when you pry them from their cold dead hands.....

"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..."
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gauchobill
Advanced Member

1039 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  06:55:37 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
If he targets Guam (a bastion of our Navy and Air Force assets in the western Pacific) that will trigger a war that will destroy much of the Korean peninsula. At least it will mark the end of Kim.
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heavyweight
Senior Member

USA
781 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  10:16:13 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
It's all bluster. Even that sociopath realizes that N.K. will cease to exist if he uses a nuke.
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gw
Advanced Member

3984 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  11:20:59 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
if we back off one more time and let this idiot develope nuclear ICBMs what will the world be like in the future?

he will hold the region hostage for decades

someone in the world needs to get a backbone and settle this account, Trump may be the perfect storm.....

"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..."
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Dov
Advanced Member

USA
2638 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  6:07:28 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by gw

the stories about Kim murdering his family and Generals are largly fake news generated by the south Korean press in an attempt to create headlines.

current assessment is that he is hugely popular with a very loyal following inside N.Korea

North Koreans have limited access to information, they have been trained to believe that their military is the only thing saving them from distruction and protects them from the western world.

to paraphrase, they'll give up their nukes when you pry them from their cold dead hands.....



It's hard for us to realize distorted view of world most of the people in North Korea have.

I've a forum buddy from gun forum I was on years ago before Evan's site was up, whose dad was Fighter pilot that defected from North Korea.

Sounded like his dad at least still worried somewhat about death squads tracking them down in the US from North Korea. Not that I think that was at all likely or even feasible.

Edited by - Dov on August 09 2017 6:08:04 PM
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

4377 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  7:15:22 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Arvinator

Yes he's a sawed off runt. Yes he's a dictator and could easily start a war. Lucky for us, all the other countries backed us on the last UN Resolution.

I could see terrorist joining up ( or already joined up) with North Korea. Remember Pearl Harbor? Remember 9/11? I guess most have let the cobwebs & dust get on the generator since the snowstorms are over for a few more months.

While ICMB's & Stealth Bombers and wishful thinking for the USS Missouri to go clobber North Korea, they could get small terror cells as a start for all out chaos & possible strike.

Stay alert & prepared folks. I'm thinking of a new home for me & the wife in a rural area with more natural resources and a strong shelter or a room that offers all kinds of threat protection like a basement or underground tornado shelter.

While I Pray for peace daily, I go to work, shopping, & Church knowing what could happen.


If you haven't already, you may want to check out Joel Skousen's 3 books: Strategic Relocation (3rd Edition), The Secure Home, and The High Security Shelter.


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

4377 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  7:23:28 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Is Kim Jung Un crazy enough to start a war that would end the sweet deal he now enjoys, as the Supreme Leader, who's literally worshipped by his people?

Whether or not he is, I agree with gw: we'd be crazy to let things continue to develop there like they are.

Why not pull all our troops out of South Korea, evacuate the city of Seoul to the extreme south of the peninsula--- then bomb the Norks' military and nuclear installations out of existence?


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on August 09 2017 7:31:06 PM
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

4377 Posts

Posted - August 09 2017 :  7:28:59 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Malcolm

I see him sending hundreds of thousands of his people, NOT troops, south to the border and simply become starving refugees(which they are).
He would then mobilize his troops in the guise of "protecting" the refugees from the evil West.
Something akin to what Hitler did to Poland prior to invading that country.
We definitely need to pray for peace, and be steadfast in our faith and in being as prepared as we can be.


Apparently the Chinese have stationed troops on their border with N. Korea; which some commentators have suggested is not to support the Norks; but rather, for the purpose of keeping out any refugees from N. Korea who may decide they'd be better off 'relocating' to China.


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on August 09 2017 7:29:57 PM
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gw
Advanced Member

3984 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  09:09:36 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
remember the Korean war is not over it ended in an armistice

the North Koreans consider themselves in a state of war, have for decades, their nuke program is essential to their existance.

I've been on the DMZ and in Panmunjom, if you don't think a state of war already exists spend a year stationed on the Z.

Idon't think the Koreans have sat down at the peace talks since 2010

also, Mr Trump probably doesn't need Congress to resume hostilities

"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..."
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gw
Advanced Member

3984 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  10:34:52 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
the US can easily defeat North Korea, if it wants to pay the toll

what does it do with it when it's over

and what about China?

NATO forces pushed North Korean back to the Chinese border on the verge of defeat in Sep 1950

then feeling threatened, China entered the war Oct 1950, pushed NATO troops back to the 38th parallel where they sit today.....

"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..."
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gw
Advanced Member

3984 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  10:59:52 AM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by LittleBill

Is Kim Jung Un crazy enough to start a war that would end the sweet deal he now enjoys, as the Supreme Leader, who's literally worshipped by his people?

Whether or not he is, I agree with gw: we'd be crazy to let things continue to develop there like they are.

Why not pull all our troops out of South Korea, evacuate the city of Seoul to the extreme south of the peninsula--- then bomb the Norks' military and nuclear installations out of existence?





26 million in the Seoul Metropolitan area, there are 27 bridges across the Han river, on a good day it can take a couple hours to cross in traffic.

26 million will plug the roads almost instantly, US and Korean military will be froze stuck on either side of the river, a major refugee crisis would be created

the major airlift is probably at Humphreys.

the removal of UNC headquarters to Humphreys was scheduled to be completed in 2016, this should have relocated most US civilian personel and major portions of the military south of Seoul and across the Han.

during the war Seoul was destroyed along with the population seveal times.

when I was stationed there in '87 we had pre registered targets for our artillery inside the city, I don't know or think there was a plan to evacuate the civilian population.

"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..."

Edited by - gw on August 10 2017 11:02:06 AM
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Chris Christian
Advanced Member

USA
2939 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  12:15:36 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
As noted by GW the Korean War did not end with a peace treaty -- just an Armstice to stop to the hostilities. The state of war still exists.

If the Norks launch offensive weapons towards Allied forces it could be construed as violating the Armstice. I'm not certain, under those conditions, if Congressional action would be required for Allied forces to resume active offensive military operations.

Regardless... if that fat little nut job takes offensive military action it is going to be an indescribable mess. Seoul is going to get hammered by the Nork guns in range and taking out all those guns isn't going to be easy. Conventional weapons will take awhile and nukes (even 5kt tactical stuff) is problematic due to vicinity to Seoul.

To go further into Nork land we will have to use a lot of air & cruise missile assets to take out air defenses and C&C. We need to achieve air superiority to conduct effective air ops in country.

The best option? Maybe when the Norks break the Armstice a 'decapitation strike' to nail nut job and his immediate circle... non nuke (or maybe 5 kt) might be best.... if we can figure out where he is. Then see who takes over, and might want to talk, before the rest of the 'mess' occurs.

Regardless of what happens it's going to be a 'fecal matter sammich' for the Korean peninsula. However, I'm not certain that the U.S. mainland will be affected. Just MHO.


Chris Christian
There are those who make things happen. There are those who watch things happen. There are those who wonder What The Heck happened! Pick one.
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jle3030
Advanced Member

USA
4992 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  12:39:40 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
If I were Trump I'd send the Norks a quiet, but pointed message that we're no longer the gutless Clinton or Obama regime. In violent terms they can understand.

John Lehman was SECNAV, 1981-87 under Reagan. In his book On Seas of Glory he describes dealing with the Soviet missile submarine threat. Our US subs were so quiet that they would pick up Soviet subs leaving their Murmansk home port and literally tailgate them, undetected (!!!???), for the entire duration of their cruise. (Sure would have like to have been a fly on the wall when the Russians found out we had been doing that!)

The Norks are crowing about their new ability to do underwater launches of their new 1200 km missile. The platform is apparently one or more of the '60's era Soviet Golf II's they bought for "scrap" from the Russians in 1993. Diesel/electric technology; 17 knots surfaced and 13 underwater.

Is seems to me it would be no problem at all for one of our hunter-killer subs to "mysteriously disappear" one of those boats. Perhaps there would be an oil slick and some floating debris, but "Gee, these are old boats that the Russians sold for scrap a quarter of a century ago. Who knows what all could have happened..." Plausible international deniability. Repeat if needed.

A few years back the Norks torpedoed and sank a South Korean naval vessel, killing a large percentage of the crew. I think they would recognize the payback and understand the rules have changed.

First blood to our side and message delivered.

Jeff

jle3030

Edited by - jle3030 on August 10 2017 5:40:29 PM
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Chris Christian
Advanced Member

USA
2939 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  1:01:05 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
I think the clearest message President Trump could send to the Norks
(and their Chinese enablers) would be issue an order for ALL American military dependents, and most civilian Dept Def workers, to leave Korea NOW! A mandatory evacuation done in an advanced and unhurried atmosphere while it could still be done in an orderly fashion.

It would create some hardships for our people there... but better to do it now...and NO stronger message about our resolve, and potential actions, could be sent.




Chris Christian
There are those who make things happen. There are those who watch things happen. There are those who wonder What The Heck happened! Pick one.
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jle3030
Advanced Member

USA
4992 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  1:06:28 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
Maxine Waters: We should give North Korea what they want.

Gov. Mike Huckabee: Kim Jong Un will kill himself if Trump sends Maxine Waters to Korea"

HT: Weasel Zippers.

Jeff

jle3030
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

4377 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  4:18:06 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
And even the truce has been broken many times by the North. Care of Jim Geraghty:

November 10, 2009: A North Korean navy patrol boat crossed into South Korean territorial waters, ignored radio warnings and warning shots from South Korean naval units, and opened fire on a South Korean patrol boat. The two boats exchanged fire, both took light damage, and the North Korean boat returned to its national waters. Similar exchanges of fire between naval vessels occurred in 1999 and 2002, with more significant casualties.

March 26, 2010: A North Korean “midget submarine” fired a torpedo and sunk the South Korean Naval corvette Cheonan, killing 46 sailors and wounding 56 more. North Korea denied responsibility but South Korea and its allies have no doubt they committed the attack.

November 23, 2010: North Korean forces fired around 170 artillery shells and rockets at Yeonpyeong Island in South Korea, hitting both military and civilian targets. The attack left four South Koreans dead and 19 injured. South Korean forces returned fire.

October 19, 2014: “North and South Korean soldiers exchanged gunfire when the North’s soldiers approached the military border and did not retreat after the South fired warning shots.”

August 10, 2015: “North Korean soldiers sneaked across the heavily guarded border with South Korea and planted land mines near one of the South’s military guard posts, and two southern soldiers were maimed after stepping on them.”


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on August 10 2017 4:33:21 PM
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

4377 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  4:29:09 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by gw

quote:
Originally posted by LittleBill

Is Kim Jung Un crazy enough to start a war that would end the sweet deal he now enjoys, as the Supreme Leader, who's literally worshipped by his people?

Whether or not he is, I agree with gw: we'd be crazy to let things continue to develop there like they are.

Why not pull all our troops out of South Korea, evacuate the city of Seoul to the extreme south of the peninsula--- then bomb the Norks' military and nuclear installations out of existence?





26 million in the Seoul Metropolitan area, there are 27 bridges across the Han river, on a good day it can take a couple hours to cross in traffic.

26 million will plug the roads almost instantly, US and Korean military will be froze stuck on either side of the river, a major refugee crisis would be created

the major airlift is probably at Humphreys.

the removal of UNC headquarters to Humphreys was scheduled to be completed in 2016, this should have relocated most US civilian personel and major portions of the military south of Seoul and across the Han.

during the war Seoul was destroyed along with the population seveal times.

when I was stationed there in '87 we had pre registered targets for our artillery inside the city, I don't know or think there was a plan to evacuate the civilian population.


Yep. As soon as I posted, I started thinking about how long it would take to evacuate that many people. Not practical.



quote:
Originally posted by Chris Christian

I think the clearest message President Trump could send to the Norks
(and their Chinese enablers) would be issue an order for ALL American military dependents, and most civilian Dept Def workers, to leave Korea NOW! A mandatory evacuation done in an advanced and unhurried atmosphere while it could still be done in an orderly fashion.

It would create some hardships for our people there... but better to do it now...and NO stronger message about our resolve, and potential actions, could be sent.



Good idea!

And at the same time, 'advise' civilians in Seoul that now might be a good time to visit friends or relatives in the South.

It strikes me that the Norks might have a lot less incentive to shell Seoul, if all the folks from the US are gone and all that's left is those Korean civilians who weren't able to leave.

And then: HALO-drop Maxine on the North and wait for 'em to surrender... warn 'em that if they don't move fast, Pelosi's next....


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast

Edited by - LittleBill on August 10 2017 4:36:54 PM
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Chris Christian
Advanced Member

USA
2939 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  4:30:01 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
The Korean War never officially ended. What was declared was, in effect, a truce.... not an end to the war. The Norks don't seem to pay much attention to that truce.

Maybe we need to get their attention.

Maybe a little "Shock & Awe"... or maybe some "Fire & Fury" might be in order. Or, maybe more. But if it comes down to 'them or us'... I'd rather it be us.

North Korea has proven to be an outlaw regime/rogue nation. They counterfit money (especially US $100 bills)... they ship weapons all over the world...they send agents to assassinate regime opponents in foreign countries... and generally disregard all international norms of human or nation behavior. They've done it for years.

Maybe that should end now? Their bluster has given us the legal reason to do that.









Chris Christian
There are those who make things happen. There are those who watch things happen. There are those who wonder What The Heck happened! Pick one.

Edited by - Chris Christian on August 10 2017 4:35:22 PM
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LittleBill
Advanced Member

4377 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  4:42:26 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
And it's hard to imagine that the Chinese would risk going to war with us over North Korea. Who knows, they may even be relieved not to have to keep supporting that Nork nutcase and his failed regime....


"Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at its testing point"--- C.S. Lewis

"There are some ideas so foolish that only an intellectual could believe them"--- George Orwell

Slow Is Smooth, Smooth Is Fast
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jle3030
Advanced Member

USA
4992 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  7:07:57 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by LittleBill

And it's hard to imagine that the Chinese would risk going to war with us over North Korea. Who knows, they may even be relieved not to have to keep supporting that Nork nutcase and his failed regime....

You'd think so, but there's no way to know for sure and look what happened last time we kicked North Korea's butt.

China is building toward military dominance in the Western Pacific and East Asia. In WestPac we are the only credible threat, so we're the ones they're looking to defeat. I question whether they would allow their arch rival to invade and conquer their client state right on their doorstep.

We could possibly trigger prematurely the all out war that many Chinese believe is inevitable anyway.

Jeff

jle3030

Edited by - jle3030 on August 10 2017 7:17:40 PM
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gw
Advanced Member

3984 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  7:37:58 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
China will help N.Korea damage the U.S., just of a matter of how much additional support they'll provide

their missle program has advanced with Chinese support

their Nuclear program was estimated to be 3 years from where they suddenly are, likely someone gave them a boost....

"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..."
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gw
Advanced Member

3984 Posts

Posted - August 10 2017 :  7:41:07 PM  Show Profile  Reply with Quote
China will become the number one economy in the world, we are in their way

"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not..."
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